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The events that have been unfolding in Niamey over the past week are breathtaking. If the situation was not so ominous, it would be comical. How could we have gone in the space of a few hours from a highly predictable purely Nigerien coup to a Cold War episode, with the potential to set Niger and the whole of West Africa ablaze? It's a cocktail of blindness, analytical errors, self-fulfilling prophecies and emotions, beyond reason.

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